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      發布日期:2019-01-07  瀏覽次數:1852次

      作者:張皓淵  時間:2019年1月4日


      截止昨日收盤,康臣藥業市值較50億港幣低~30%(50億市值為深港通市值要求)。我們認為管理層將努力維持深港通地位。公司目前19年PE為6x,香港其他可比公司為12x。我們基于SOTP估值體系,給予公司目標價11.95港幣(2019年PE 16x),較當前價格有170%上漲空間。我們維持“買入”評級,公司的中成藥產品線具有一定防御性且擁有強勁的資本回報潛力(在更多回購前,公司分紅率預計達到5%)

      What’s New:

      Consun (1681 HK, BUY)) went up 6% yesterday on shares buyback and staff option plans amidst a sector-wide sell-off. It announced a 63mn share options plan (representing 6.3% of enlarged share base) to certain Directors and employees with exercise price at HK4.476 (6% higher than previous day closing price). It also initiated a share buyback program and repurchased 670,000 shares during last trading hour (accounted for 0.0766% of share base) at a total cost of HKD2.98mn (or HKD4.4/shr).

      Our view

      The new Share Options followed the last staff incentive program launched in 2016 (which now has 55mn exercisable shrs w/ exercise price of HKD4.01). We noted the vesting condition based on KPI during the period and exercisable amount for  Apr 2020/21/22 are split into 30%/30%/40%, respectively, and 55% of options are granted to mid to high-level management and sales. We believe the incentive plan can help Consun in attracting and retaining its key talent.

      We also believe Consun would conduct more share buyback, underpinned by its strong operating cash flow (HKD460mn at end-FY18E) and rich net cash (RMB760mn at end 2018E, 20% of current market cap).

      As of yesterday’s close, Consun’s mkt cap is c.30% below HKD5bn (SZ-HK stock connection mkt cap requirement). We think Mgmt will aim to retain the SZ-HK stock connect status. Co. is now trading at 6x 2019E PER vs HK listed peers’ 12x, while we set SOTP-based TP at HK$11.95 (16x 2019E PER), with over 170% upside .

      We maintain BUY rating as we think the stock offers a defensive TCM portfolio and strong capital return potential (we estimate 5% dividend yield before any further buy-back).